Since the AIDS epidemic of the early 1980s, epidemic modelling has generated dramatic numbers – often leading to widespread panic. But how reliable are they? Not very. Covid case and fatality projections have tumbled by orders of magnitude. This is nothing new, however. After so many failures, Michael Fumento argues in Issues and Insights, it’s time to ditch the models.
At Least He Paid his Losing Bet
Paul Ehrlich, author of the spectacularly incorrect 1968 best-seller The Population Bomb, recently died at 93. Despite his longevity, Ronald Bailey points out in Reason, Ehrlich did not live to see even one of his numerous apocalyptic predictions come true. The world’s population certainly grew, but not merely larger, richer and fatter too. Most famously, Ehrlich once bet economist Julian Simon that the world was approaching economic collapse – but in 1990 had to mail Simon a cheque.
